OT---MPG---Price of gas.

I was asked an interesting question by my 13 year old grandson.
If the average MPG for all vehicles were to reach 50 mpg, in a few years, what would the price of gas go to???

Since there doesn't seem to be any correlation between supply and demand it will probably keep going up over the years no matter what gas mileage we get.

(quoted from post at 09:02:35 07/30/11) I was asked an interesting question by my 13 year old grandson.
If the average MPG for all vehicles were to reach 50 mpg, in a few years, what would the price of gas go to???

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I don't have a clue. But I think the grandson is pretty smart.

Well, if gas is 3.50 right now, and if 25 mpg is average, then 50 mpg would put you right at 7.00/ gallon. Make sense?

I personally dont think that cars/truck could ever reach 50MPG unless the cars were the smart cars with diesel engines and the cars were made out of thin aluminum sheet and the frames were made from plastic. An 800 pound car that only goes 55mph on the road that is a death trap. (how interesting)

If everybody drove a smart car, why would it be any more unsafe than everybody driving pick-ups?

If world demand dosen't increase, if supply dosen't decrease, if the costs of extraction, production and transporting stay the same, yep the price will go down. A bunch if IF's. The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are experiencing dramatice conomic growth and will demand much more fuel in the future, and crude production in deep water and oil shale is a bit more expensive . I would not bet the farm on gas prices going down over the long term.

The fuel price will increase as were now trading crude oil on the world markets, not the local USA market on the oil that we can produce.

A good example happening right now:

Spot crude price for the Brent (Britten) produced oil is about $117bbl on the world market. Gasoline fuel in Britten is about $5gal

Spot West Texas crude is about $98bbl with gasoline fuel at $3.5gal because our Gov't has a subsidy for the oil company's .

This is also true for China as China also pays that $117bbl then discounts that back too there people. I picked China because as our fuel usage drops, China fuel consumtion increases thus were caught in the world oil market and the price of crude will not come down in the USA.

Then you also have to take into account what our currency is worth to other country's.

The true price of crude oil is very difficult to calculate. It's that way on purpose so we can't figure out exactly what were paying at any given time.

Now if we produced that barrel of crude from your USA oil well, are you going to sell it cheaper than what you can sell it for on the world oil market?

T_Bone

LOL how true.


Guy in Fergus Falls MN....big tree hugger, got one of the electric cars. Found out real quick that he can't drive the 55 miles to Fargo and back plus run around town while he's there. Also found out that below freezing it wil not make enough heat to keep the windows clear.

I'm betting the agreement makes it for the fleet average based on one from each size class/type, not what actually gets sold, just don't see a lot of urbanite or rural people buying electric. Bet too that yer going to start seeing a lot more diesels too.

Rick

Because there would still be some pickups and trucks out there on the road. Hit an aluminum/plastic car with a Kenworth it will not be good for the cars occupants. Bad enough with most of the cars they have now.

you ever seen one of them dumba$$ mobiles up close? get in a wreck with a german sheperd dog and you lose...i had one park next to me at the store...whole thing wasnt much bigger than the cab on my Toyota Tacoma regular cab.

Theres VW diesel getting 60 now. One of my best friends has a Rabbit with a diesel, and runs B20 90% of the time. Of course hes made some upgrades, such as bigger injectors and such, at least i think thats what he said. Anyways, he has shown me, hand calculated slightly over 60 mpg on B20. Hes tried straight diesel with only slightly better results, and has made his own bio in the past with still good results, like 57mpg on it. again though, its one of those small cars you speak of.....

Your grandson poses an interesting question.

With cheaper gasoline people will drive more and further since they can do so cheaper. I remember back in the late 1950s of hearing two men talking about driving 80 miles round trip for cups of coffee at night after everything locally had closed. Would they do that today with nearly $4 gas?

With cheaper gas people tend to move further out into the country from their work, etc. Price goes down, there goes more farmland out of production.

There really is a lot to consider in order to answer such a question. I haven't a clue.

I tried to splain "fuel cost" to my 2 college educated enviromentalist kid's who were all over me about my old F-150 and 15 mpg on a good day. Most of my mileage is my 18 mile round trip to work an back. I'm a patient man with simple needs so I keep a sticky note pad handy an make a list of things I need in town an make the stops to get them during my commute to an from work or when I absolutely need to be in town. MPG pretty much falls out of the figuring when you put a calculator to all the other expenses related to a new "fuel efficent vehicle" that I don't have with the old Ford. What's really amazing is the respect that rusty old Ford gets from the "fuel efficent" bunch and the shiny SUV bunch.
Geez!! planning and limiting the amount of driving you do is quite a concept! I've seen the kids and their mother make as many as a half dozen trips to town in a day. You suppose a car getting 30 mpg and making 6 trips to town is anymore cost effective than a truck getting 15 mpg making 1 trip?

I have been limiting my trips to town, for years! I construct a list of items and when I eventually make the trip, I am gone for a while. That was when I lived about 7 miles from town. I now live in town and still do the same.

Unless they come up with a smart semi you might be in trouble.

The short answer is if they sell less they'll just raise the price. Like the politicians in one state/town wanted to do to electric cars, their idea was that the hybrid cars weren't paying enough tax so they wanted to put a special tax on them, not taking in account the obvious of a use tax, how much you use you pay and they weren't using much.

The price of fuel is the same as it was 40 years ago.

The dollar is worthless.

Plot the price of fuel vs $ per oz of gold or silver
and you get a pretty straight line.

A SILVER quarter buys the same btu's then as it does now.

Fuel is priced on the world market and there are too many dollars in the world.

Gold $40/oz, crude $4/bbl in 1970; Gold $1600 oz, crude is $100 bbl now; supports $160 crude as it was in 1970.

Look at each time a "quantum easing" or oil released from the national storage does to the value of gold or crude.

Don't even get me started on copper.

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Because all accidents are not car on car, many are car on tree, car rolls over, car hits deer, etc. Even small car on small car is less safe.

The mid size 5 passenger steel body mid size 50 mpg sedan that weighs 3300 pounds has been on the American market for 10 years now.

My 2010 model Toyota Prius makes 50-55 mpg at the 65-75 mph speed limit. On the rare trip where I have a tail wind, it has made 60+ mpg.
Five 6 ft+ folks ride in comfort. Has the best seats and controls of anything I have owned. First car I have owned that I can drive all day without getting sore or tired.
Really decent for a $22,000 car, and no need to be a joke like the smart car.

No problems with it in the two years I have owned it. Hybrid battery life is so good that I expect it to wear out the car.
A Taxi fleet in Canada runs a fleet of Prius in taxi service. Their cars have between 2-300,000 miles without having to replace a hybrid battery.

You could also point out that your old ford can do things cars cant do..

At the Pontiac dealer where I used to work, someone crashed into a loaded dumpster pushing it into the compressor cage. The 1990 Chevy 1500, 5.7 litre engine would not move the dumpster. My 1980 Ford 150 with a 4.9 litre (got 12 mpg) walked it right out so we could restart 2 of 3 compressors. The difference was the rears and tire size - the Ford was close to 5 to 1... the bigger Chevy truck 2.2 to 1.

I'm just stirring things up. I knew I'd get some replies to that one. Technically if all cars were smart cars or similiar, they wouldn't be all that unsafe, not accounting for trees, poles, etc. of course.

I bet they're all up when they're graphed against wages.

But that solves the social security and medicare problems....

Somewhere I saw a crash-test between a 1956 or 69 Chev and a 2009 Chev. the passengers in the old car would not have survived, the 09 dummy had a broken leg.

Wages and income are rising fast in China, India and across southeast asia while income falls in the US. World wide energy demand will continue to rise even faster as more people can afford a better life style. The US is only 5% of the world's population,and we used to consume 40% of the oil produced. Soon most of asia can afford oil too and will bid up the price.

To be realistic, US consumers will probably be priced out of the energy market as the dollar continues to fall. It sounds like the auto companies have recognized the more economical vehicles may be what will be in demand in five to fifteen years.

I don't like it either, but world wide demand is doing the same thing in the grain markets.

Simple answer to that one .

The prices are determined by the Market
when demand drops prices will go up.

I predict in the year 2025 that minimum wage shall be at least $50.00 (worthless bills)

We now have a Country close default, with a president wanting to spend more worthless money to actually lower the value of our 8¢ American bill

Hey !! I got an Idea --why don't I just write them a Check for them and get them out of debt? same thing -- I mean spending money I don't have, it's legal for them .

In 1989 GM was selling GEO Metros that had a 5 speed manual trans. They got right at 48 mpg.

(quoted from post at 22:37:20 07/30/11) In 1989 GM was selling GEO Metros that had a 5 speed manual trans. They got right at 48 mpg.

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That was before [b:508888c22d]EPA[/b:508888c22d] took over this contry!!!!!!!!!

I have a stock VW Golf diesel, 6 speed manual, and get an average of 42mpg and i love it, I really don't understand why more people don't have them.

I drove it to N. Carolina and back and got 48mpg on the highway doing about 78 the whole way

I just use regular on-road diesel

Hypothetical question similar to "what would
happen if an unstoppable force met an unmovable
object?

I just bought a 2011 Ford Fiesta and get 49mpg with a gasser engine if I drive it correct for maximum fuel mileage. I get 36mpg+ driving it like I don't care about fuel mileage, (the way my wife drives it). Overall for a gasser, it's not too shabby.

Keep in mind that I too once drove a VW diesel for 300k miles and averaged 52mpg year around. I sure made a ton of money on that engine in the 80's and 90's VS driving a gasser.

T_Bone

In the 50s I could buy 5 gallons of gas with an hours wages.My son can buy 5 gallons of gas with an hours wages .What has changed?

Gasoline, even at four bucks a gallon, is dirt cheap right now. It's going to get more expensive in the future, whether or not cars get 50 mpg. Whether or not demand goes down as cars get more efficient is debatable, it hasn't happened so far. The only thing that will reduce demand for fuel is higher prices.

Oil is a commodity, we will see $1.50 gas sometime in the near future and then $4.00 gas again after that, the price does and will continue to fluctuate with world wide demand, many people arrogantly assume the USA is the sole driver of oil prices, nothing could be farther fromn the truth these days. You better hope we don"t see 50 cent gas because that will mean the world is in a depression, if Zero hasn"t already got us in one.

A new mandate formally announced this morning arguably makes it even more likely you'll find one with significantly higher mpg. The external_link administration and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have come to an agreement with 13 major automakers--as well as the state of California and its Air Resources Board, and the United Auto Workers (UAW)--about fuel economy. The new standard, which will eventually require a 54.5-mpg fleet average (roughly 163 grams of CO2 per mile), will effectively double the average fuel economy of U.S. vehicles by 2025.

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11211/1164124-185-0.stm#ixzz1TgcRjng4

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As a fun thing to do, speculate. But about something that will never happen. My crystal ball shows this 'mandate' being totally ignored or over turned..By

A

Aera Energy
Alyeska Pipeline Service Company
American Shale Oil
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation
Apache Corporation
ARCO
Ashland Inc.
ATP Oil and Gas

B

Baker Hughes
Baker Hughes INTEQ
Bill Barrett Corporation
Bio-Blend Fuels
BJ Services Company
Buckeye Partners
Burlington Resources

C

Cabot Oil
Caltex
Chemoil
Chevron Corporation
Chief Oil &amp; Gas
Circle K
Citgo
Clark Brands
Coffeyville Resources
Crown Central Petroleum

D

Devon Energy
Diamond Shamrock Refining and Marketing Company
Dura Lube

E

Eddy Refining Company
Enefit American Oil
Energen
Energen Resources Corporation
Enterprise GP Holdings
Enterprise Products
EOG Resources
EQT
Ergon (US)
Esso
Exxon
ExxonMobil

F

Freeport-McMoRan
Frontier Oil

G

Gate Petroleum
Getty Oil
Giant Industries
Global Partners
Global Resource Corporation
GlobalSantaFe Corporation


G cont.

Greka Energy
Gulf Oil
Gulf Oil LP

H

Havemeyer Oil Company
Hess Corporation
Hess Oil and Chemical
HKN, Inc.
HollyFrontier Corporation
Hunt Oil Company
Hunt Petroleum
Hunt Refining Company

I

Independent Energy Partners

J

Justice Brothers

K

Kaiser-Francis Oil
Kerr-McGee
Kinder Morgan
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners
Koch Industries

L

Lion Oil
Lucas Oil

M

Mammoth Resource Partners
Marathon Oil
Marathon Petroleum
Mariner Energy
Marland Oil Company
Merit Energy Company
Merrion v. Jicarilla Apache Tribe
METRO Fuel Oil
Mobil
Motiva Enterprises
Mountain West Energy
Murphy Oil

N

Newfield Exploration
Noble Energy
NOCO Energy Corporation
NuStar Energy

O

Occidental Petroleum
OpenSpirit Corporation

P

Pacific Pride
Paramount Petroleum
Penn Virginia
Pennzoil
Petrohawk
PetroSun
Pilot Corp.
Pilot Flying J
Pinnacle Petroleum
Plains All American Pipeline


P cont.

Plains Exploration &amp; Production
Prisma Energy International

Q

Questar Corporation (gas company)
Quicksilver Resources

R

Range Resources
Red Leaf Resources
Red Line Synthetic Oil Corporation
Rentech
Rex Energy
RKA Petroleum Companies

S

Saga Petroleum LLC
Schaeffer Oil
Scurlock Oil Company
SemGroup
Seven Sisters (oil companies)
Shale Technologies (company)
Shell Oil Company
Sinclair Oil Corporation
Skipco
Speedway LLC
Standard Oil of Louisiana
STP (motor oil company)
Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc.
Sunoco
Sunray DX Oil Company
Syntroleum

T

Taylor Energy
Terrible Herbst
Tesco Corporation
Tesoro
Texaco
Total Petrochemicals USA
TransMontaigne
Triton Energy Limited

U

United Refining Company
UOP LLC
Utah Oil Sands Joint Venture

V

Vaalco Energy
Vacuum Oil Company
Valero Energy Corporation
VECO Corporation

W

Western Geophysical
Western Refining
Williams Companies
Wolf's Head (motor oil)

X

XTO Energy

Actually it won't be any of these companies that
will block a 50+mpg fleet average.
It will be the laws of physics are designed by
the Creator that will make a 50mpg fleet average impossible. Don't like it, complain to Him.
There is only 114,000 btu in one US gallon of
gasoline. Unless your 50+ mpg fleet operates in a
vacuum without aerodynamic drag. And your 50+mpg
fleet only drives down hill.

Table of GGE

Fuel GGE BTU/unit kWh/Unit
Gasoline (base)[2] 1 US gallon 114,000
BTU/gal 33.41
Gasoline (conventional, summer)[2] 0.996 US
gallon * 114,500 BTU/gal 33.56
Gasoline (conventional, winter)[2] 1.013 US
gallon * 112,500 BTU/gal 32.97
Gasoline (reformulated gasoline, ethanol)[2]
1.019 US gallon * 111,836 BTU/gal 32.78
Gasoline (reformulated gasoline, ETBE)[2]
1.019 US gallon * 111,811 BTU/gal 32.77
Gasoline (reformulated gasoline, MTBE)[2]
1.020 US gallon * 111,745 BTU/gal 32.75
Gasoline (10% MBTE)[3] 1.02 US gallon 112,000
BTU/gallon 32.83
Gasoline (regular unleaded)[4] 1 US gallon
114,100 BTU/gal 33.44
Diesel #2[4] 0.88 US gallons 129,500 BTU/gal
37.95
Biodiesel (B100)[4] 0.96 US gallons 118,300
BTU/gal
Bio Diesel (B20)[4] 0.90 US gallons 127,250
BTU/gal
Liquid natural gas (LNG)[4] 1.52 US gallons
75,000 BTU/gal
Compressed natural gas (CNG)[4] 126.67 cu ft
(3.587 m3) 900 BTU/cu ft
Hydrogen at 101.325 kPa 357.37 cu ft 319 BTU/cu
ft[5]
Hydrogen by weight 0.997 kg (2.198 lb)[6]
119.9 MJ/kg (51,500 BTU/lb)[7]
Liquefied petroleum gas(propane) (LPG)[4]
1.35 US gallons 84,300 BTU/gal
Methanol fuel (M100)[4] 2.01 US gallons 56,800
BTU/gal
Ethanol fuel (E100)[4] 1.500 US gallons
76,100 BTU/gal
Ethanol (E85)[4] 1.39 US gallons 81,800
BTU/gal
Jet fuel (naphtha)[8] 0.97 US gallons 118,700
BTU/gal
Jet fuel (kerosene)[8] 0.90 US gallons 128,100
BTU/gal
Electricity 33.40 kilowatt-hours * 3,413
BTU/(kW·h) [9][10]
*calculated based on 114,000 BTU/gal base gasoline

Your son is making a heck of a lot more money than you were, way back when! BT/DT: Rustyj

Where are you finding $4 gas?Ive been paying $1.30 per litre for 6 months(London Ontario).So thats 4 litres per US gallon plus 5% premium over US$ right now on the currency so thats about $5.50.But it could be worse.15 years ago Canadian money was only worth 68 cents US.That would make gas$2.02 per litre or $8.00/US gallon or $9.00/Imperial gallon if my math is correct.

Another toque wearing, back bacon eating, Molson drinking Canuck.
$129.99 x 3.78 /1.04 exchange = $4.73US per US gallon in London Ontario.
London is 2 hrs north east of Detroit.

I did a milage check on my 96 F150 4 wd auto with ovedrive.On a 100 mile trip it got 19.3 mpg.Half the trip was on the interstate, never over 55 mph.Truck shifts into over drive at 45 mph.Tachometer say the engine is running at 1400 rpm .351 V8.Friends Ranger got 22 mpg.He cant understand how to calculate gas milage and getting him to fill up so I can figure it is hard to do.He has an S10 now and is crabbing about poor gas milage.I keep a notebook and buy every thing I can afford when I do make a trip.I live on a state high way, traffic is awful.Hard to cross the road to get to the mail box.I see the same cars at the corner store many times in a day.Wife and I made a trip to get some truck parts and buy some basic groceries.Price for a few items surprised me.You can run the speed limit and every one will pass you.