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30percent should i take the chance?

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jim

06-13-2004 20:50:32




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30 percent chance of rain thurs? what to do.
with all these computers you would think they would get a better grip of forecasting.




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Greg C

06-14-2004 21:20:57




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 Re: 30percent should i take the chance? in reply to jim, 06-13-2004 20:50:32  
Had a three acre pasture a buddy of mine wanted me to cut and bale for him. He's had horses in there, so it wasn't too thick, I figured I'd give it a shot. Cut on Saturday about noon, went back Sunday after church and raked, looking good so far, not supposed to rain till late Sunday night. Checked the weather around 3, rain's coming our way. Nuts! I called my buddy and gave him the news, we decided to bale it while it was still damp, rather than let it get rained on all week. Normally, I wouldn't consider doing that, but my neighbor has cattle in dry lots and they'll eat it up within 2 or 3 days. If nothing else I at least got it out of my system for another week or so, on the plus side, my baler ran flawless, 90# bales out of a NH super68, definitely a little damp!! Hope everyones luck improves. Greg

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Larry NE IL

06-14-2004 21:04:48




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 Re: 30percent should i take the chance? in reply to jim, 06-13-2004 20:50:32  
If everything is soggy and your area is looking for a chance to dry out.....90% chance it will rain when 30% is predicted. If it's been dryer than a popcorn fart and you are looking for rain....10% chance when they predict 90%. Larry



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Ron in AR

06-14-2004 20:46:24




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 Re: 30percent should i take the chance? in reply to jim, 06-13-2004 20:50:32  
Here's a formula that I use here that seems to work quite well. Take the rain chance percentage and add to it the percentage of your total hay you plan to mow and you have your true rain percentage. For instance... you start out with a 30% chance of rain and cut 50% of your hay. You've just increase the chances of rain to 80%! I try to shoot for 0% chance of rain and cut half my hay. That way I figure I have a 50-50 chance of getting in dry hay this time of year. It also works the opposite way too. If you have a 50% percent chance of rain and WANT to cut 50% of your hay but DON'T, it surely WON'T rain because 50% chance of rain minus 50% of the hay you don't cut equals o% chance of rain. You might think this is some pretty strange reasoning, but I swear it's true! Oh yea, did I mention that I go by Sholtz's Law. In case you've never heard of it, it's a very simple statement..."Murphy was an optimist"

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SPEEDWAY SQUARE BALING

06-14-2004 20:35:48




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 Re: 30percent should i take the chance? in reply to jim, 06-13-2004 20:50:32  
the 30% chance of rain is a farse, you always have a 50/50 chance of rain. now in oklahoma all the weathermen say chance of rain- i call it chance of flood, and thats when they predict a 20% chance.
they say we live in the valley of the sun//// for the next few months when gonna fell like we live on the surface of the sun.
just me .02
speedway square baling
broken arrow, oklahoma



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RickB

06-14-2004 17:21:06




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 Re: 30percent should i take the chance? in reply to jim, 06-13-2004 20:50:32  
30% is a typical summer forecast in NY. Seldom see much less. My grandfather shared hay equipment with his brother in the 1930's & 40's. Never had a conflict cause Gramp was making hay while Great Uncle was waiting on the forecast.



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Doug

06-14-2004 07:33:53




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 Re: 30percent should i take the chance? in reply to jim, 06-13-2004 20:50:32  
I always heard that it better to cut the hay when its time than waiting till there is no chance of rain. Getting it rained on when its down is better than cutting it after it begins to drop in feed value.



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kyhayman

06-14-2004 18:37:15




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 Re: Re: 30percent should i take the chance? in reply to Doug, 06-14-2004 07:33:53  
Depends on what you plan to do with it. For feeding your own stuff I certainly agree (thats why I cut and wrap what I plan to feed). For selling hay, I sold 8000 square bales and 1000 round bales last year (and these were my smallest sales in 10 years) and not one person wanted a forage test, cared about maturity, or had any questions at all other than "was it rained on". Only thing they looked at was 'is it green' and 'does it smell good'. Only 3 times in 20 years has anyone asked for test results or maturity info. That's why I quit fighting the May (and June)rains and wait to cut until I get some weather.

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dan

06-14-2004 05:39:25




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 Re: 30percent should i take the chance? in reply to jim, 06-13-2004 20:50:32  
gramp always said cant get it up till you lay her down



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txblu

06-14-2004 05:34:00




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 Re: 30percent should i take the chance? in reply to jim, 06-13-2004 20:50:32  
30% HAH! They said 0% for Saturday night and Sunday changing to 10% Sunday and down hill from there.

Guess what? It rained Saturday night. But I fooled them. I took off a half day Friday and got it all raked up and Saturday when the dew was off I raked her again and square baled it up. This stuff had been rained on 4 times but believe it or not it smelled pretty good; no soggy spots and no rancid smell.

I called the local farm supply store to get a protein check and they said that I had to get that from the ag agent. This was Saturday. Fat chance.

So this is one for the tedder. Had I not scattered it out it would have been a lost cause.

My first year with a tedder; won't be the last.

Had a buyer and delivered right off the truck/trailer. $1.50 but that's better than a loss and since I didn't know how the protein was effected, I figured that was fair for both sides.

Mark

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farmertee

06-14-2004 01:26:40




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 Re: 30percent should i take the chance? in reply to jim, 06-13-2004 20:50:32  
I got the weather forecast on saturday and it said there was only 20 percent chance of rain on monday. Well here it is monday and as I am writing this my hay that I mowed is getting washed off. FRUSTRATING!



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paul

06-13-2004 20:55:41




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 Re: 30percent should i take the chance? in reply to jim, 06-13-2004 20:50:32  
Alfalfa is blooming, I cut a bit yesterday but was rutting the field, cutter bar was in water in one spot. Going to cut the rest tomorrow, rain was forecast today & is again Monday eve/ Tues morning, then Friday. Time to cut, gotta go....

--->Paul



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